Can Adams Really Win a Second Term?

In a wide-ranging press conference on Monday, Donald Trump was asked about the possibility he might pardon Mayor Eric Adams and indicated he was very open to it. Also on Monday, the city’s Campaign Finance Board declared Adams ineligible for lucrative public matching funds, saying that in his solicitation of donations, “there is reason to believe the Adams campaign has engaged in conduct detrimental to the matching funds program, in violation of law.” Both developments change the trajectory of the 2025 mayoral race. But by how much? Below is a review of Adams’ strengths and weaknesses assuming he is pardoned, as well as a macro assessment of many of the variables yet to play out. 

What strengths does Adams have going into a primary?

Yes, Adams’ overall approval rating is low — just 12% of city voters said they would support his reelection in an October Marist poll, and 53% said he should resign — but Adams retains a base of supporters. In that same poll, Adams still had roughly 40% support among black respondents. That’s not sky-high, but you have to assume those are loyal supporters that he can count on no matter what (he could also retain strong support among Orthodox Jewish voters). If African-American voters make up about 21% of Democratic primary voters and if Adams retains 40% of those voters, that’s about 8-9% of the electorate, which is not insignificant in a multi-candidate field (and he’ll have some other voters too). 

The challenge is that in ranked-choice voting, Adams seems like a very binary candidate. His supporters are with him no matter what, but it’s easy to see many other voters not listing him on their ballots at all.

What about money? Adams just was dealt a multi-million-dollar blow from the campaign finance board. Money is not all important in the race but it does matter. The short story is that some big-money interests could stand in his corner. The decision to house all illegal migrants was very beneficial to the hotel industry and Adams has been a steadfast friend of the development community, even recently refusing to sign popular legislation ending forced broker’s fees for rentals. It’s possible those and other groups pour millions of dollars into a pro-Adams independent expenditure campaign — but it’s far from assured, and risky to count on. 

We in the political class are often myopic, but, indictment and campaign finance troubles aside, Adams has had a good run these last few months. He’s removed many of the advisors who were getting into trouble — Phillip Banks, Sheena Wright, Edward Caban, Tim Pearson and now Ingrid Lewis-Martin — and elevated more professional, less political leadership. The appointment of Jessica Tisch as police commissioner has gotten good reviews so far. And the passage of the City of Yes affordable housing plan in the Council was a major win, one that could even be called legacy-defining. He has some wind at his back. 

And while the crime story is complicated, Adams has made some progress on quality of life issues. His team has closed somewhere around 1,500 illegal weed shops. Too many illegal shops are still open, but it’s a good start. Obviously, lots of quality-of-life problems remain, ranging from endless scaffolding to mentally ill people stalking the subways and streets to a shoplifting epidemic. But if Adams can aggressively show progress on those in the next few months, that could matter. And he’s helped by the fact that nobody else in the mayoral field, which is far left (at least for now), looks likelier to tackle those problems any better. 

Adams is still a dynamic personality. He’s charismatic. He’s a good campaigner. He’s savvy. He’s gotten this far for a reason. 

Then there’s a wildcard: Adams could arguably run as an independent or Republican rather than as a Democrat, meaning he won’t have to convince Democratic primary voters in the summer — but voters at large in the fall. Ideally for him in this scenario, the GOP would leave its line blank and Adams would run as an independent. With a weak Democrat as an opponent, winning this way is not inconceivable and possibly easier than winning a Democratic primary. 

What are his weaknesses?

We have to start with the obvious: Those approval ratings are really, really low. The Marist poll had him at 26%. You could argue it’s an outlier because he was just indicted, but a poll from the Manhattan Institute in April had him at 24% and a Quinnipiac poll from last December had him at 28%, so it’s not just the indictment. This is the lowest approval rating of any New York City mayor in modern political history. He simply may be too unpopular to win re-election, full stop. If we assume the obvious answer is the most likely answer, Adams can’t win. 

A pardon would help Adams, even coming from Trump, by removing the dark cloud that follows him around. But a pardon won’t change that prosecutors believe that Adams committed crimes that rose to the level of indictment.

A significant slice of the electorate believes that the city is a mess, and not being governed as well as in the past. An October Siena poll found that New York City residents feel the city is on the wrong track by a 51-35 margin. Crime, immigration (which is often a proxy for quality-of-life complaints) and homelessness made up 50% of the top choices for the biggest problems facing New York City. Major violent crimes are up. Felony assaults are a major problem. Offenses overall are at their highest level in a decade. Adams ran on a promise to make the city safer. His record on this core priority is checkered.

Nor can we underestimate the significance of the Campaign Finance Board’s ruling. Candidates get an 8-1 match of public dollars for every small donation they receive. Not being eligible puts Adams at a very real disadvantage. (He could have received as much as $4.3 million as a match to current donations.) Outside groups could come to his rescue, but if not, it’s a deep hole to dig out of. 

And Adams’ legal problems may not be over. Even if Trump pardons Adams on federal charges brought by the Southern District, this assumes the Manhattan District Attorney does not bring any charges against the mayor. And if the Eastern District were to bring charges, the pardon would presumably cover those too (but who knows?). Either way, it seems like Ingrid Lewis-Martin, Adams’ top advisor, is about to face her own indictment. Who are voters going to believe on whether their mayor is corrupt, Trump and Adams or their own eyes?

What variables are still at play?

There are five notable announced candidates for the primary (not counting Adams), but none of them have broken through yet. There’s still lots of time, but in a few weeks, 2025 arrives and the official election season begins. Pretty soon, the candidates have to start meaningfully differentiating themselves from the others. Yes, some will have more money than others, but in a media market this expensive, we’re not talking about enough money to really move the needle; also, the abnegation of issuing local endorsements by the New York Times removes another powerful tool candidates have previously ridden to victory.

The biggest open question, of course, is whether Andrew Cuomo will run. If he does run, Tish James has dropped hints she might run too, just to prevent Cuomo from winning. Either or both entering the field would deal a major blow to Adams.

Whoever it is, the mood in the electorate is so sour, the Democratic nominee may be beatable in a general election. Trump received 30% of the vote in New York City. The Daniel Penny verdict shows deep frustration across ethnic lines over the quality of life and crime issues plaguing the city. Many of those problems can be squarely laid at the feet of the policies and ideology of progressive Democrats, making the nominee — potentially — unusually weak. I still wouldn’t bet against the Democrat running for mayor in New York City, but the GOP candidate did win five consecutive general elections between 1993 and 2009, so it’s not unprecedented.

This is a precarious moment. If you’re like me (and if you’re reading this, sadly, you probably are), you’re torn. You love New York City, wish it were in better shape and are not thrilled with the options to replace Adams. But you also love all of the intrigue, the moving chess pieces, the moves and countermoves, the endless possibilities and permutations. It’s fun. Trump entering the fray with a possible pardon keeps Adams alive (however barely) and only expands the number of potential outcomes. 

I can’t wait to see what happens next.