How Congestion Pricing 2.0 Will Work on the Ground

It’s Take Two — or in my case, Take Five, since I’ve seen congestion pricing attempts in 1973, 1980 and 2008. If your head is spinning, here’s why: In spring 2024, Gov. Kathy Hochul, following through on a law passed under Gov. Andrew Cuomo, came out full-fledged for a robust $15 peak congestion pricing fee, only to reverse herself in June when she said the time was not right. She somewhat reversed herself again at a news conference on Nov. 14 when she announced 40% off the initial sticker price of $15. So now peak bridge, tunnel and street charges will be just $9, assuming everything goes according to the latest plan.

In a pitch worthy of the best car salesman or saleswoman, the governor proclaimed on Thursday that she just saved New York drivers up to $1,500 per year. Nevermind that daily commuters will be paying over $2,000 per year for the privilege of driving into our Central Business District after paying nothing since July 11, 1911, when tolls were removed at the East River Bridges.

Nonetheless, I support the governor and fully understand her reasoning. Failing to move ahead on a revised version of congestion pricing now would surely doom it to the trash heap under President Trump, whose administration would likely withhold the federal approvals the Biden administration has already given and will swiftly give again now.

The almost-implemented plan would have raised $15 billion for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority subways, buses and commuter rail immediately, with the MTA borrowing bonds against the anticipated revenue stream. The new plan will generate less, about $10 billion in the short term and the full $15 billion within six years, assuming the MTA follows through on increases in 2028 to $12 per car and $15 per car in 2031. 

As someone who cares deeply about the state of our public transit system, I’m not too worried — since a jump of $10 billion in the MTA’s capital project program will be a pretty big boost to large projects such as the Second Avenue Subway extension as well as other projects. 

Here are other details of the plan:

• Every single charge approved by the MTA in the spring will be reduced by 40% across the board.
• The affected area remains the same: Manhattan south of 60th St. aka the Central Business District. Vehicles will only be charged on entering, not exiting, the zone.
• The peak fee will be $9 once a day for cars during peak hours. Peak hours are 5 a.m.- 9 p.m. on weekdays and 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekends.
• The off-peak fee will be $2.25 (that’s less than the $2.90 subway fare!)
• Taxi passengers whose trips have an origin or destination within the zone will pay 75 cents extra. This is on top of a $2.50 charge for trips south of 96th St. enacted in 2019. 
• App-hail cars, i.e. Uber, Lyft, Revel and the like, will add $1.50 per trip to or from or within the zone atop a $2.75 charge south of 96th St. enacted in 2019.
• Trucks, depending on size, will pay between $14.40 and $21.60 during peak times as listed above. Off-peak trucks will be charged $3.60-$5.40.
• Credits for those who enter the congestion zone via the four tunnels (the only already tolled spans to the zone): the Lincoln, Holland, Battery and Midtown tunnels, will get a $3 credit during peak times; no credit off-peak. 
• Residents of the zone with income levels below $60,000 will be entitled to a New York State tax credit. Low-income drivers from elsewhere will get a 50% discount after 10 trips/month. 
• Through-traffic, meaning cars and trucks with no origin or destination within the zone, will not be charged as long as they stay on the FDR Drive or West Side Highway.  
• Note: There is a scheduled increase to $12 per car during peak hours, in 2028, and another increase to $15 for cars in 2031.
• The start date is Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025, at midnight.

Got that?  Don’t fret if you don’t — I used a cheat sheet!

Speaking of cheating, everything I wrote for Vital City in the summer about what could go wrong with these plans remains true today. “Ghost plates,” defaced and covered plates, will continue to plague red light and speed cameras as well as tolling agencies. With congestion pricing just six weeks away, I expect a brisk business in out-of-state bogus plates. (My disabled vet plate from Mississippi, pictured in the May article, was had on eBay for less than $20. For the record, I am not disabled, nor from Mississippi, nor a vet.)

After pushing for the $15 peak toll for the past six months, why am I so accepting of the governor’s plan? Because we have very little time left. It’s the fourth quarter, with time running out. Trump has vowed to “TERMINATE Congestion Pricing in my FIRST WEEK back in Office!!” But he’ll have a much much harder time doing that if it’s already in place.

So I’ll take the field goal as time runs out and call it a win.

Secondly, I always felt there would be a lot to learn once the system goes into effect. For instance, this 40% reduction in fees doesn’t translate to a 40% cut in total revenue. Because under the lower toll, more cars are projected to come in than would’ve done so under the old higher toll; the real revenue loss is expected to be not 40% but probably 30-35%. We will see.

Thirdly, the urgency for new MTA revenue is even greater now than it was before the election. The Biden administration added $4 billion to the MTA’s capital plan in addition to federal formula assistance; the last Trump administration awarded just 2% of that amount, $80 million. The next Trump administration can be expected to return to that stingy position.

Congestion is worse than it’s been for at least a half-century since annual speed records have been kept. (I started issuing reports on the subject in 1971 as director of research with the old city Traffic Department.) Midtown traffic clocked in at 4.8 mph and Central Business District traffic at 6.9 mph in Fiscal Year 2024, both record lows. 

I’d estimate congestion pricing will produce a speed increase of between 5% and 10%, or about a half mile per hour. While that may not sound like much, consider this: Emergency response times have been going up and up over recent years. For every minute medical attention is delayed to a stroke victim, 2 million brain cells die, and for a person in cardiac arrest, survival drops by 10% for each minute of delay. At today’s midtown speed of 4.8 mph, it would take an ambulance 25 minutes to reach a patient 2 miles away; at 5.3 mph, it would take 22.6 minutes — or 2.4 minutes faster. How do you put a value on that?