The Feeling That Won't Go Away

According to Mayor Eric Adams and the NYPD, crime is down in the city. Murders decreased 11%, from 429 in 2022 to 380 in 2023. Shootings fell to 967 from 1277, a drop of 24%. (Not every trend was positive: There were 27,299 felony assault incidents in 2023, up 6% from 25,745 in 2022.)

Based on these numbers, some argue that the reality of the threat of being the victim of crime is declining substantially in New York City. But across two years of polling from the Siena College Research Institute (SCRI), nearly 90% of city residents say that crime is a serious problem statewide and 75% say it is a problem in their community. Comparing the concern of New York City residents to those across the rest of the state, we see that city residents are far more likely to view crime in their community as a problem, and by a margin of nearly 20 points (70%-51%), they are more likely to be concerned that they personally will be a crime victim.

But that 24% remains the minority. Fully three-quarters of respondents as of November 2023 said crime had either stayed the same or gotten worse. Over 40% of New York City residents tell SCRI they have witnessed violent or threatening behavior among others in public; felt threatened by others in subways, buses or on the road; or been frightened by a stranger’s behavior in public over the last year. One in six (compared to 4% in the suburbs and 3% upstate) reports having been physically assaulted. And just over half of city residents tell pollsters that, over the last year, they've been concerned about their safety when thinking about being in public places.

While 59% of city residents say that they are no more worried about being the victim of a crime today than they have been in the past, a sizable 39% say that they have never been as worried about their personal safety as they are today. 

We have to ask: How do we reconcile declines in crime statistics with the perception many New Yorkers have that it’s a devilish problem that is getting worse? And, if indeed, a large majority of city residents think that both the problem is getting worse and that they may be a victim, is this the permanent state that we must live in?

The first thing we should understand is that everything is relative; while year-over-year trends get many headlines, the larger statistical reality is that notwithstanding this decline, many crime totals remain elevated over their 2019 levels, after 2020-2021’s COVID-19 pandemic coincided with sharp rises in most violent crime. So, while residents may or may not register a single-year change in the weather, they quite possibly are still feeling a change in the climate.

Some New Yorkers are trying to protect or arm themselves. A third of all New Yorkers, over half of those earning over $100,000, have purchased a home security system. A quarter of all and well over a third of wealthier New Yorkers have taken a self-defense class, and one in six of all city residents and 29% of those earning $100,000 or more have purchased a gun. 

We see some notable differences across the five boroughs when drilling down on the question of what people in the city are experiencing. While 37% of Manhattan residents think crime has gotten better in their community, no more than 12% of any other borough feel the same way. Still, even in Manhattan, 61% say crime locally has stayed the same (39%) or worsened (22%), compared to 85%-94% in each of the other boroughs. Higher-income individuals are taking more precautions, but when asked, close to 70% of all city residents, including 70% of whites, 69% of Blacks and 76% of Latinos, are concerned that they will be a victim of a crime. 

According to our respondents, the causes of crime include the usual suspects — poverty (cited slightly more often by Blacks and Latinos), substance abuse, mental illness and family breakdown with a sprinkling of concern over the recent influx of migrants. Few feel as though the state government has been successful in addressing crime; along with the migrant influx, New Yorkers tend to list addressing crime as among the government's greatest recent failures. While the common polling question “Is New York on the right track or headed in the wrong direction?” is typically seen as a political or economic measurement, with a majority of all New Yorkers and a plurality of city residents persistently choosing to say things are headed in the wrong direction, it’s fair to include crime and the perceived presence and threat of crime as a contributing factor.

Unsurprisingly, politicians — who know how to read polls — seem to understand what they’re dealing with. Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2022 faced a surprisingly stiff Republican challenge in this left-leaning state, as her opponent blamed her and Democrat-led criminal justice reforms for rising crime rates. In 2023, Eric Adams won the mayoralty in a campaign focused on his pledge to drive down crime. During the race and after he won the election, some in his own party criticized him for effectively feeding a gap between perception and reality by claiming crime in the city was a far bigger problem than it actually is.

Hochul acknowledged the disconnect New Yorkers express as crime rates lessen but the fear or concern over being the victim of random or senseless crime persists. She plans to use government to address domestic violence, retail store attacks, hate crimes and mental illness. At present, New York City residents are evenly divided 51%-48% as to whether they are or are not satisfied with what the state government is doing to prevent crime, and New Yorkers are at best evenly divided as to whether the governor will or will not make progress on the goal of making New York safer.

According to our polls, residents of the state say the government is doing a better job on things like protecting the environment, making health care available, improving education and even protecting tenants rights, but not on preventing crime or helping New Yorkers stop looking over their shoulders when walking down a darkened street. A recent poll found New Yorkers disapproving of the job the mayor is doing on crime by nearly two to one, 60%-33%.

We in public opinion research never want to doubt the wisdom of the people we poll; their perception is our reality. But given the stubbornness of perceptions even as crime numbers seem to bend, we must allow for the possibility that the constant media and polling attention given serious crime has made us more frightened. Nationally, Gallup points out the stunning and depressing fact that though violent crime declined significantly in 2023, 77% of Americans think crime is increasing, a misperception that it is in some politicians’ interest to continue to feed.

What we find is that, whatever crime statistics show, most of us are worried that it could happen to us. That feeling is nebulous and hard to overcome. We’d like the government to do more. Some of us are training, equipping and/or joining together. We the people say crime is a serious problem, and most of us will continue, for now, to look over our shoulders and worry when someone we love leaves home.