Political consultants explain what it would take for him to win a second term.
Our friends at Vital City asked us what it would take for Eric Adams to both survive politically today and win re-election in 2025. Neither of us are Adams advisors. We ran Andrew Yang’s campaign for mayor in 2021. But this is our diagnosis as political professionals as to how things may unfold and why it may be premature to count Adams out.
Obviously, things at City Hall feel very grim at the moment. And depending on the direction prosecutors take, it may soon get a lot worse. But unless and until that happens, counting Adams out would be foolish. He very well may still be our mayor for years to come.
Let’s start with a cold look at the numbers. Progressive voters will constitute between 25-30% of the June 24, 2025 Democratic primary. Adams is not only not going to get those voters, he’s not going to be their second or third choice votes either.
Quantitatively, to overcome that, Adams has to win 70%-80+% of Black voters (which would total about 21% of the projected total primary vote), 55%-65+% of Latinos (totaling about 24%), 45-55+% of Asians (totaling about 11%) and 45-55+% of non-progressive whites (totaling about 14-19%).
Getting this share of the non-progressive white vote would mean capturing 80+% of Orthodox Jews, and a big number of the ever so slightly more moderate parts of Brownstone Brooklyn, the Upper East Side and other key neighborhoods. Add the few remaining moderate white voters in outer-borough Queens and Brooklyn (Rego Park, Manhattan Beach, and so on) and that — plus the above shares of the African American, Latino and Asian votes — can get him there.
Qualitatively, here’s how it happens:
1. Not get indicted.
Obviously, this is not under his control, but unless Adams was taking kickbacks, when you look at the actual investigations and what we know so far, it’s not clear that Adams was involved in any actual crimes.
In theory, he could have known what Tim Pearson or Eddie Caban or Phil Banks were up to and sanctioned it. But why would he? Proving how much he knew will prove to be a high bar when it comes to bringing charges against the sitting mayor of New York City (remember that prosecutors were very clear that they thought Bill de Blasio was guilty of corruption and yet they still didn’t bring charges). It seems equally likely that Adams is guilty of bad management and even worse judgment rather than of breaking the law itself. We’ll see.
If Adams and his senior team avoid indictment, that could be enough to keep Andrew Cuomo out of the race, though many signs currently point to his running. But Cuomo only gets one shot at political redemption, so he has to be cautious. He can’t win this (or any) election without Black votes. He certainly does not want a repeat of his disastrous 2002 primary against Carl McCall.
If Adams keeps Cuomo out of the race — and the more he makes the race about race now, the easier that becomes — that probably leaves the field running as Adams against four progressives: Comptroller Brad Lander, former Comptroller Scott Stringer and State Senators Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos. That’s not a terrible dynamic for Adams, especially given the inherent advantages of incumbency and crime trends which, while mixed, largely play to his advantage against four more strident police critics.
To be clear, we do not think it is plausible to win while under indictment, especially given Adams’ current poll numbers. If Adams is indicted, we do not expect him to resign (unless resignation is part of a plea deal to avoid jail time) and perhaps still even run, but winning in that scenario seems near impossible.
2. Clean house.
Everyone in legal jeopardy needs to go. Now. So far, Adams has refused to do this, resulting in the sudden resignation of his counsel, Lisa Zornberg. The time has come.
It does seem plausible that longtime allies like Tim Pearson and Philip Banks have information on Adams that he wants them to keep private (otherwise, why is he still protecting them?). So be it, meaning Adams may have to not only clean house at City Hall but also come clean about whatever it is he’s afraid of. Unless it’s also something illegal, it’s probably not as bad as the damage they’re doing to him now.
This could lead to Adams’ version of Richard Nixon’s famous Checkers speech (it worked for Nixon). And while he’s at it, any other members of his team who are demonstrably ineffective (there are plenty) should go too rather than pretending everyone is great and everything is perfect. Rip the Band-Aid off in full. And stop the war with the City Hall press corps. It’s not working.
3. Tap into the cadre of former Bloomberg and de Blasio commissioners.
There are dozens of longtime government professionals who are well respected and can project and provide stability and competence, but too many of them are outside the fold right now. Along the same lines, Adams should commit to — and deliver on — full transparency on schedules, lobbyist meetings and anything else that raises questions or suspicions.
4. Really make progress on quality-of-life issues.
So many people have said to each of us that while they can’t stand Andrew Cuomo personally, they would still vote for him because he could clean the city up and, to them, that’s worth it. To win reelection, Adams has to become the same kind of force in their minds. That means moving faster to close the rest of the illegal weed shops. It means tearing down illegal street sheds and excess scaffolding. It means ticketing people riding bikes the wrong way or on the sidewalks. It means more effectively removing violent mentally ill people from the streets and subway trains. It means showing average, centrist Democrats that they can count on him for the issues they care about most — their safety and their childrens’ safety.
5. Create real wedge issues with the progressives in the race.
Adams needs clear contrasts with his rivals where he’s on the side of common-sense voters. Some possibilities: Flood the subways with cops and arrest people for signs of aggression. Call for gates to be erected at every subway turnstile to keep non-paying riders out of the system. Propose legislation creating real penalties for riding the bus without paying. Put migrants on buses and send them back to Texas. Take issues where average Democratic primary voters will feel very differently than progressives and force the progressive candidates to act outraged and compete for one segment of the voters at the expense of the rest.
6. Come out with some big ideas.
How about advocating for New York City to control its subways and buses? How about repealing Local Law 11 and using drones for inspections instead? On top of his City of Yes housing plan, how about looking for even more high-profile ways to ramp up housing production, perhaps by attacking the cost of building? The bigger the ideas and easier they are to explain to voters, the likelier he’ll seem like the leader in the arena — compared to his rivals, the people who claim they want more affordable housing and then back every community group that blocks it.
7. Take some populist positions.
How about supporting pending City Council legislation that would ban brokers' fees for rentals (rather than doing the bidding of the real estate lobby, vetoing the bill and being embarrassed with another override)? Strategically coopting progressives’ best issues will put his rivals in a tougher spot.
8. Roll out support now from labor.
Through generous contracts, Adams has taken very good care of lots of unions, both public and municipal. He needs their backing now and he needs them to start running ads showing New Yorkers what he’s gotten done (lower crime, more jobs and higher test scores). This is the time to call in chits.
9. Roll out support from every African-American elected official, civic leader, community leader, business leader, pastor and cultural figure possible.
Make the case that Adams is being held to a different standard because of his race, which also puts the progressive candidates in a difficult position. Remember, David Dinkins — the first Black mayor the city ever had didn’t get a second term (while Bill de Blasio won one despite being embroiled in scandals of his own). Turn not letting that happen again into a cause.
10. Do the same with Latino leaders, Asian leaders, Orthodox Jewish leaders and white moderates.
Usually, this would be way too early to be explicitly assembling public coalitions. Not this time. Call in all the chits. Get everyone you can on board to make the notion that he can be pushed out of the race or pushed aside seem nonsensical.
If Adams can survive legal jeopardy and make the adjustments above, the race is still winnable. But it will require a very different approach and a somewhat different team than what he’s had so far. It won’t be easy, but it’s not impossible.