Parsing 18 years of data on underground violence
We analyzed nearly two decades of data on subway crime from the NYPD and other sources to zero in on major trends in what kinds of crimes happen most, where and when people are at greatest risk, who’s victimized and who the perpetrators are. Here’s what we found.
Key insights
1. Subway assaults have tripled since 2009
- Violent crime trends show assaults driving this increase, while instrumental crimes like robbery and grand larceny have declined.
2. Violence is heavily concentrated in particular spaces and at particular times
- In 2023, the highest per-rider risk of violent crime occurred at smaller, lower-ridership stations, particularly during late-night and early-morning hours.
- Half of all violent subway crimes took place at just 30 of New York City’s 472 stations. This is not because these stations are inherently more dangerous, but because they have the highest levels of ridership.
3. Subway violence is very rare by most measures
- Felony assaults happen about once every 2.3 million rides.
- Shootings happen about once every 190 million rides.
4. Underground recidivism is growing
- Violent-crime recidivism in the subways has doubled since 2019. Repeat offenders often have long criminal histories and overlapping struggles with homelessness and mental illness.
- Among individuals in the top decile of overall subway arrests who also had a history of subway violence in 2023, 80% have documented mental health issues.
- Nearly 90% have a history of homelessness or being categorized as emotionally disturbed persons.
5. The nature of subway violence is evolving
- The age of the average violent crime arrestee has shifted from being in their early 20s in 2006 to their early 30s today.
- Unlike robberies, assaults are less likely to have a financial motive, reflecting a broader societal shift in the nature of violence.
Crime trends
Our analysis reveals a notable shift in the nature of subway crime. Since 2009, subway assaults have tripled while instrumental crimes (e.g., robbery, grand larceny) have declined. This indicates a fundamental change in the character of subway crime from calculated criminal activity to more spontaneous violence.
1. Overall, the increase in subway crime has been driven by assaults, not robberies.
Looking at quarterly data, total violent crimes are on an upward trend since 2014, with a particular acceleration starting in 2020. On a per-ride basis, there was a notable spike during the pandemic’s low-ridership period, and the rate has now stabilized at levels higher than pre-pandemic rates.
Since 2019, recidivism — defined here as the share of individuals committing crimes who are arrested in consecutive years — is up in New York City. For subway violence, it doubled between 2018-19 and 2022-23.
2. Spatial and temporal patterns
While most crimes occur during peak hours of ridership, on a per-person basis, the subways are actually safest during peak hours of use.
When the stations are ranked by the count of crimes, 30 of the city’s 472 stations account for 50% of violent crimes. However, these 30 stations include most of the major hubs and serve a particularly large volume of passengers. On a per-passenger basis, these stations do not pose the greatest risk to riders. The highest risk to a given rider, by far, is at the smaller, outlying stations that have lower ridership.
(Important caveat: Crimes that occur on trains are assigned to the closest stations, so many of the crimes “in stations” are actually happening on trains.)
3. Offender demographics
Our examination of violent offender characteristics reveals several notable patterns:
A. Age distribution: The perpetrators of public violence in New York City, including subway violence, are mostly adults — with a significant portion being in their 30s and 40s. The average age of offenders has grown substantially over the last two decades. Most offenders (about 80%) are men.
B. Criminal history: Subway violent crime offenders show distinct patterns from offenders of non-subway crimes. Among individuals arrested for a violent subway crime in 2022-23:
- 16.8% had a prior arrest for violent subway crime during the prior six years. 70.7% had a prior arrest for violent crime anywhere in the City during the prior six years.
- 24.7% had a prior arrest for farebeating during the prior six years.
C. Mental health and housing: In 2023, the majority of frequent subway offenders (two-plus arrests) were homeless or had a history of mental illness:
- 69% had prior drug arrests.
- 41% were documented as homeless.
- 59% had documented mental health issues.
- 65% had either homelessness or emotional disturbance histories.
4. Critical context
These numbers should not obscure the fact that subway crime overall is rare — and, when we compare time spent underground and above ground, the platforms and trains are probably safer than the streets for most people.