Mayor Adams, Don’t Sell Out New York City’s Economy

Days after federal corruption charges against him were dropped, Mayor Eric Adams appears poised to open New York City to President Trump’s mass deportation agenda in what Manhattan’s federal attorney described as a “quid pro quo.” Adams’ posturing has hinted at this for some time: The mayor has framed the recent influx of asylum-seeking migrants as an economic burden that “will destroy New York City.” “The long-term consequences have yet to materialize,” he told Tucker Carlson on Jan. 22.  

In fact, our calculations show New York City is just beginning to reap the benefits of this influx of hardworking people. According to TRAC, 316,000 asylum seekers have come to the city since 2022. We project that they will contribute $8.6 billion annually to the local economy, assuming their wages and employment rates resemble those of New York’s existing undocumented population. We came to this figure using existing estimates of the impact of low-education immigrant workers on business revenue and worker productivity.

Much of this revenue will flow to public coffers. Using previous studies of the fiscal impact of asylees and adjusting for differing wages and government spending in New York City, we estimate that the asylum-seeker population will pay $962 million more in taxes than they receive in benefits in a typical year. With New York bearing most of the local costs of education, healthcare and shelter, this tax windfall will primarily go to the federal government, providing revenue for programs like Medicare and Social Security. If ICE is allowed to wreak havoc on New York City, all these benefits will be lost.

Previous waves of immigrants have similarly fled desperate situations, arrived with limited resources, faced nativist backlash and yet still became vital contributors to the city’s economy and culture. There’s no reason to believe today’s newcomers should be any different. With New York’s U.S.-born population declining and demand for workers growing fastest in the industries most reliant on immigrant labor, they are arriving at an opportune time. 

It is true that New York City has spent substantial amounts on services for asylum seekers — a combined $5.2 billion in fiscal years 2023 and 2024, with another $4.5 billion budgeted for FY 2025. These costs doubtless have been inflated by Adams’ “emergency” decision to suspend competitive bidding requirements for contractors providing such services. The city comptroller’s investigation found several egregious examples of overpayment. One contractor received $117 per hour for security guards and $201 per hour for off-site managers. 

In total, budgeted spending on asylum seekers made up 4.2% of the FY 2025 budget.  After a few months, the majority will stop receiving emergency housing and help and become self-sufficient. As we mentioned above, they will contribute about $8.6 billion yearly to the local economy once they are established. Thus, in pure economic cost-benefit terms, the money spent on their reception is an investment in the future of the city. 

Importantly, the upfront costs are not the product of an “open border.” People coming to New York City from abroad is not a new phenomenon. In fact, the city’s undocumented population was at its highest in 2012 at 611,000 and fell to 412,000 by 2022, according to the Mayor’s Office of Immigrant Affairs. Nor is the scale of the current influx unusual in recent times — during the 1990s, the city’s foreign-born population grew at a higher annual rate than it has during the 2020s.  

Rather, the recent difficulty housing asylum seekers is a unique case created by a confluence of factors: a political stunt that brought people in busses to cities where they lacked connections, a pre-existing housing shortage; an already-struggling, poorly run shelter system unequipped to house new arrivals from humanitarian crises; lacking services for those experiencing homelessness; a lack of legal immigration pathways; and laws that prevent asylum seekers from working as soon as they apply for asylum.  

In order to get a sense of how their economic integration is going, our research team at the Immigration Lab talked to asylum seekers outside shelters in Manhattan and in immigrant neighborhoods like Corona and Bushwick. We interviewed 50 people from eleven different countries over the course of December 2024 and January 2025. These conversations indicated that migrants are steadily finding work and housing in spite of numerous obstacles. 

Before claiming asylum, people must physically come to the U.S. For nearly everyone we spoke to, this involved taking on substantial debt to finance a deadly, months-long overland journey. This debt can be a major obstacle as people try to establish themselves in New York. 

In 2023, John borrowed nearly $30,000 to bring his family of five from Ecuador to the US-Mexico border. A mechanic by trade, he quickly found work repairing e-bikes at a workshop in Queens, earning $1,200 a week. Yet over half of each paycheck goes to repaying his creditors back home (who have threatened to kill his parents should he miss a payment), leaving him unable to afford rent and trapping his family in the shelter system in the short term. He says he’ll have paid off enough debt to move to an apartment in New Jersey in three months.  

Lacking a sponsor in the U.S., crossing the border was John’s only way to come. Had he been able to come directly from Quito to New York, his spending power would have been going to New York businesses instead of to human smugglers. 

After applying for asylum, people must wait 180 days before receiving a work permit. Unless they have connections to support them, this effectively forces people without family already in the U.S. or an off-the-books job offer to live off the state for six months. In practice, our interviews have made it clear that it’s often much longer. In 2023, New York City began limiting stays in any one shelter to 60 days, forcing people to shuffle between different facilities. Many migrants are not informed that failing to report this change of address to USCIS within 10 days is a misdemeanor and can delay or derail their ability to get documents. 

The experience of Carlos, who we spoke to outside a Manhattan shelter, exemplifies the bureaucratic absurdities that hold migrants back. Bused to New York City from Texas in late 2023 as part of Operation Lone Star, he immediately applied for asylum, citing political persecution in Venezuela. While waiting for his work permit, he bounced between different shelters and worked temporary construction and moving gigs. He says his lack of documentation allowed these employers to exploit him, frequently not paying him in full. 

Carlos told us that a relative in Oklahoma had found him a job in trucking, his original profession. “The moment my papers arrive, I’m going to Oklahoma,” he says. “They’re waiting for me.” He was supposed to get his work permit months ago but had to restart the process when his address changed. He was most recently told his papers should arrive in 90 days. 

So people itching to work linger in shelters at a financial cost while crucial jobs across the country remain unfilled. The Independent Budget Office estimates the cost of missed work authorizations for asylum seekers at up to $1 billion in 2024 alone.  

Even so, with U.S.-born workers rapidly aging, rising immigration has done much to ease post-pandemic labor shortages, helping reduce inflation while maintaining economic growth. And asylum seekers are quietly integrating into the city’s economy. Of the 232,000 migrants who have passed through the shelter system, around 187,000 (81%) had moved out as of February 24, 2024. 

Many interviewees had recently gotten their work permits and found employment. They expressed excitement to begin living independently and working towards the various dreams that kept them going through sweltering jungles and deserts. As asylum seekers increasingly fill the jobs that keep New York’s service-based economy moving, the investments made are paying off. It would be a human tragedy and an economic catastrophe for deportations to derail asylum seekers’ budding lives as New Yorkers.

Contrary to his early statements, Mayor Adams seems to better understand the situation today. Mayor Adams correctly said under oath in his opening statement during the congressional hearing on sanctuary cities on March 5, 2025, crime in the city has declined, and “to be clear, a sanctuary city classification does not mean our city will ever be a safe haven for violent criminals. It also does not give New York City the authority to violate federal immigration laws… Immigrant New Yorkers, including those who are undocumented, pay billions of dollars in taxes and contribute billions more in spending power to our economy. Immigrants also play a vital role in the functioning of our city. This was on full display during the COVID-19 pandemic… various immigrant residents of our city worked to keep the city moving… many other businesses were able to function because of the commitment of our immigrant population.”

In the same way, New York has to keep its commitment to immigrants and asylum seekers as the newest New Yorkers.