Worry about crime has taken on a life of its own — and has pernicious consequences.
In the 2024 election season, television screens and social media across the nation were saturated with political ads depicting violence and lawlessness. False narratives citing government statistics declared violent crime was on the rise in 2024. This message paints a picture of America that is not based in reality. But the strategy was clear: Stoke fear to win votes. The tactic appeared to work at the ballot box. Its broader implications are deeply troubling.
Fear itself is harmful. It erodes trust, fosters division and drives counterproductive policies. It harms individuals and communities in ways that extend far beyond the presence or absence of violence. Moreover, fear of crime often has little to do with actual levels of violence. This disconnect between perception and reality is starkly illustrated by recent polling data, which show how fear continues to persist and even grow, regardless of actual crime trends. A 2024 Gallup survey shows that Americans’ fear of crime is at a 30-year high. Furthermore, the high points of public anxiety for all types of violent crime have been recorded in the years since 2020. Fear of being robbed, murdered, or attacked while in your car has dropped slightly from a peak in 2022, but it is still higher than it had been in the preceding decade.
The public does not appear to know that violent crime has been on a downward trend for decades. Even with fluctuations in certain categories of violence during and immediately after the pandemic, we are far from lawless, and we are currently witnessing large one- and two-year declines that may keep us on a multidecade downward trend.
Why should we worry about the nation’s worry about crime and violence? Because beyond influencing voting behavior at the ballot box, the emotional response to fear of violence can lead to an array of other behavioral changes — such as not walking outside, taking the subway or using parks and community green spaces. These avoidance behaviors create social isolation — a known risk factor for poor mental and physical health, including depression, anxiety and cardiovascular disease. At a societal level, fear erodes trust and community cohesion, making it harder to implement community-based prevention or intervention initiatives.
Fear also fuels reactive and punitive criminal justice policies that add to our social and economic burden, diverting resources away from education, health care and community development. History shows us how fear-based policies, like those from the War on Drugs era, fueled mass incarceration without addressing crime’s root causes. This failure likely contributed to the spike in violence during the pandemic, as marginalized communities faced compounded neglect. Tough-on-crime policies born from public anxiety, such as mandatory minimum sentencing, have exacerbated poverty, recidivism and disenfranchisement.
The New York City subway case involving Daniel Penny and victim Jordan Neely — who was indeed being threatening but had committed no violence against anyone — underscores how pervasive fear of crime can cause broader damage. Here, worry about subway crime fostered a willingness to sympathize with actions that resulted in Neely’s death by civilian chokehold. The jury’s acquittal reflects a society shaped by fear, where compassion for individuals like Neely is mostly absent.
To decrease fear and attendant harm, those who care about crime and criminal justice reform must take back the narrative. Although fear can be influenced by victimization experiences, it is also influenced by media portrayals, personal biases and cultural narratives. We have strong emotional reactions to seeing and hearing about violence — especially violence that seems random or where children are hurt. In contrast, evaluation of risk is a cognitive process involving the assessment of the probability of a potential threat based on available information — where “available information” often is sensationalized news stories, misinformation or whatever narratives are most visible or emotionally compelling. Although fear and evaluation of risk are correlated, for many, fear persists even when evaluations of risk are low.
Studies that describe who is fearful highlight how levels of fear do not mirror actual violent victimization risk. Excluding crime perpetrated by a known relation, research consistently shows that those who are most fearful — such as suburban women — are often among the least likely to be victimized. Conversely, individuals living in high-crime neighborhoods, who statistically face higher risks, do not always report heightened levels of fear. Women, in particular, are more fearful than men across nearly all contexts, even though men are more likely to be victims of robbery, aggravated assault and homicide.
Reducing fear, then, is not simply about improving safety — it’s about restoring a sense of control and trust in the systems designed to protect us. When people believe they have control over their circumstances, they are less prone to pervasive anxieties that shape how they live (and vote).
Those with large megaphones must do a better job of broadcasting the current widespread reductions in violence, consistently sharing quiet, yet significant, successes. Local and state leaders, journalists, law enforcement leaders and others all have a role to play in amplifying a message of great progress. Publicizing these achievements widely and consistently can help counter the narrative of lawlessness and restore confidence. Relatedly, it is essential to continue informing the wider public that the changes that progressive prosecutors and other liberal policymakers have adopted toward violent crime have not led to more violence. Similarly, the increase in homicides during COVID was not unique to Democratic-led urban areas.
These are important messages that must be communicated clearly and consistently. For instance, data dashboards — accessible and regularly updated online platforms — can present clear visualizations of actual crime trends; social media campaigns and press releases can counter sensationalized narratives with factual information and highlight positive developments. Additionally, innovative nonprofits such as the Philadelphia Center for Gun Violence Reporting (PCGVR) can play a large role by educating journalists and other stakeholders about the importance of framing crime trends with positive messaging. PCGVR provides resources and training to reshape how gun violence is reported and understood, aiming to promote more accurate, compassionate, solutions-oriented coverage of gun violence.
One of the most critical measures of a functioning justice system is its ability to solve violent crimes. Clearance rates are the benchmark of accountability and public safety. Police agencies must prioritize solving homicides and allocate resources strategically to improve violent crime clearance rates, sending a clear message that justice will be served. If this work advances, and those in positions of power consistently publicize the essential messages that risk is low and violence reduction is within our control, fear will abate — and the nation’s health will improve.