The Bronx’s Crime Crisis

A Dec. 30, 2024 shooting at a Gun Hill bodega left six wounded — including a mother used as a human shield and her 12-year-old daughter — providing a grim bookend to a year where the Bronx’s rising violence bucked citywide safety gains. As 2024 drew to a close, the Bronx stood as a troubling outlier in New York City’s crime narrative. While the mayor celebrates his first year of declining crime rates across the city — with overall crime down 2.9% and transit crime falling 5.4% — the Bronx told a different story. Major crime in the borough increased 1.4% this year compared to last. This is a small increase, but it builds upon years of successive increases, pushing the Bronx to its highest major crime numbers since 2000. Compared to 2019, murders, robberies and serious assaults in the Bronx have risen by more than 40%, a grim trend that has yet to reverse course. Transit crime, which is also down systemwide, was up 8.1% in the Bronx. The Bronx’s escalating violence and property crime have been a conspicuous omission from the mayor’s celebratory press conferences touting public safety gains.

The only hint of progress comes from the robbery numbers, which are down a fraction of a percent from last year’s count. Preliminary figures show that murders in the Bronx remain unchanged — down by just 1, to 119 for 2024, as of Dec. 29, an 8.4% drop from 2022’s recent peak. This remains significantly higher than the 84 murders recorded in 2019, with murder rates still 42.9% above prepandemic levels. Rather than progress, this points to a troubling new normal.

From shootings and burglaries to stolen car parts and brazen street robberies, the data tell a story of a borough increasingly left behind as the rest of New York City inches forward. The real question isn’t just why this is happening, but how we’ve allowed one part of the city to sink into an acceptable zone of crime and disorder.

Public data offer insight into what’s happening. The CompStat 2.0 webpage provides up-to-date crime numbers through Dec. 29, supplemented by the NYPD’s year-end CompStat sheet, which gives year-end crime totals Additionally, the NYPD’s Open Data deliver more granular details, although it is only current through Sept. 30. Despite these limiting time frames, the data reveal changes significant enough to assess the year’s trends.

The contours of the problem

Perhaps the clearest contrast between the Bronx and the rest of New York can be seen in gun crimes. The Bronx was the only New York City borough in which shooting numbers increased this year. As Brooklyn’s shooting rates returned to prepandemic 2019 levels, the Bronx recorded 324 shooting incidents — a 6.0% increase from the previous year and a stark 53.7% jump from 2019. The human impact is even more severe when examining the number of victims: 414 people were shot, representing a 10.4% increase from last year and a 64.3% surge from 2019’s total of 252 victims.

But the borough’s struggle with violent crime extends beyond shootings. Felony assaults have reached their highest levels since the 1990s, with an additional 2.6% increase over last year’s already elevated numbers. This mirrors a larger, unexplained trend throughout the rest of the city, where felony assaults in 2024 rose to their highest levels since 1997.

What makes an assault a felony assault, as opposed to a misdemeanor? It can involve causing serious physical injury, using a weapon or targeting a member of a protected group, such as seniors, police officers or individuals performing certain public duties (e.g., transit workers or emergency medical personnel). In the Bronx, attacks on police — which automatically qualify as felonies — remained virtually unchanged, at 677 incidents in 2024 compared to 680 in 2023, accounting for just 8% of all felony assaults in the borough. Assaults on other public workers, like school safety agents and transit employees, actually decreased, further dispelling this as a driving factor behind the overall increase. What this means is that ordinary citizens bore the brunt of the increase in these serious assaults.

While robberies in the Bronx have edged down 0.6% from last year — from 4,963 to 4,935 — this slight decline offers little comfort when viewed against prepandemic levels. The current numbers represent a 40% elevation from 2019’s total of 3,524 robberies. More than half of the incidents fall into three categories: theft of personal electronics, open-area street robberies (which can overlap with other categories) and shoplifting incidents that escalate into violence.

Even apparent bright spots are relative. According to Open Data, updated only through Sept. 30, carjackings in the Bronx fell from 116 in 2023 to 89 this year. However, this figure remains over four times higher than the 19 recorded in 2019. Despite mixed year-over-year trends across precincts, every Bronx precinct’s robbery numbers remain well above 2019 levels, signaling a sustained rise in street crime.

Reported incidents of rape in the Bronx saw troubling increases throughout 2024, with a shift following the implementation of the “Rape is Rape Act” on Sept. 1. This new legislation expanded the definition of rape under New York State law to include more forms of nonconsensual sexual contact. Before the law took effect, cases had already risen by 3.4%, with 274 reported incidents compared to 265 during the same period in 2023. After the legislation’s enactment, the numbers rose more dramatically, jumping from 349 cases in 2023 to 431 in 2024 — a significant 23.5% increase. This sharp uptick likely reflects both an actual rise in incidents and changes in reporting patterns because of the expanded legal definitions under the new law.

Property crime climbs higher

Property crime patterns in the Bronx have undergone notable changes, with data pointing to a rise in coordinated, targeted criminal operations alongside persistent opportunistic offenses. Nowhere is this more clear than in the epidemic of vehicle-related theft that has transformed some neighborhoods into junkyards of stripped cars.

While auto theft has dropped 17.8% from last year’s peak — a decline partly attributed to manufacturers finally addressing the security flaws exposed by the viral “Kia Challenge” — this improvement obscures a long-term increase that began prior to the challenge. Car theft has surged 237% since 2019, transforming some neighborhoods into hotspots for car thieves. The 49th Precinct stands out, with thefts soaring 368% from 96 in 2019 to 449 this year. The 52nd Precinct tells the same story, jumping 342% from 77 to 340 cases. This rise in car thefts devastates families, for whom a vehicle often represents both financial security and a means to maintain their daily routines.

According to NYPD Open Data as of Sept. 30, the theft of auto accessories paints the most dramatic picture of rising crime in the Bronx. These offenses — primarily involving stolen tires, air bags and catalytic converters — have surged by an astounding 769% since 2019, climbing from 156 reported cases to 1,355 in 2024. This year alone saw a 46% increase compared to 2023. Two precincts, the 43rd and 49th, accounted for nearly one-third of auto accessory thefts. More than just raw numbers, these thefts represent an increasing share of the borough’s grand larcenies, climbing from 3.8% in 2019 to 15% in 2022, and now reaching 19.2% in 2024. These crimes typically occur overnight, leaving residents to find their cars rumbling minus a catalytic converter or propped on milk crates.

Among the most troubling trends are the “snatches” of electronic devices — instances where offenders brazenly snatch phones or headphones directly from victims. These crimes, which doubled from 335 in 2023 to 688 in 2024, often verge on robbery. The difference often comes down to a single moment of force — a push or grab that would transform what police classify as grand larceny into a more serious robbery.

Commercial burglaries, based on NYPD Open Data as of Sept. 30, double the 354 recorded in 2019. They have become a larger share of the total burglaries in the borough. These trends highlight the growing vulnerability of both residents and businesses in the Bronx.

What can be done?

Add it up, and the Bronx faces a mounting public safety crisis that demands immediate action. The divergence between falling citywide crime and rising crime in the Bronx requires decisive intervention to close that gap. Here are five concrete actions to help the borough achieve the safety gains seen elsewhere in New York City:

Staff up Bronx precincts

Although the new police commissioner has so far addressed some precinct staffing gaps by returning over 500 officers to their official posts, official data reveal a deepening personnel crisis in the Bronx. Police staffing in Bronx precincts has experienced a net loss of 258 officers since Nov. 2023, with 181 officers leaving through Nov. 2024, followed by an additional 77 departures by Jan. 1, 2025.

To rebuild precinct staffing levels, the department should prioritize assigning the recruit classes to Bronx precincts while slowing the rate of transfers out of these precincts. Stabilizing staffing is essential to ensuring precincts have the resources and discretionary time to proactively address local crime concerns.

The NYPD’s staffing model, the Patrol Allocation Plan, needs an overhaul. With 258 officers leaving Bronx precincts in the face of rising crime, the current staffing model appears either abandoned or outdated. A modern staffing model must account for both surging 911 and 311 calls, alongside evolving crime patterns, to protect vulnerable communities as the overall police ranks thin.

Fix the zone strategy

The current practice of saturating large zones with officers fails to account for the department’s staffing limitations — it simply doesn’t have the staff to make this approach effective. Instead, the NYPD should adopt precision policing strategies, empowering precinct commanders to concentrate on crime hot spots. Crime, particularly violent crime, tends to be highly concentrated, and targeting these areas can yield more impactful results. The new “Every Block Counts” strategy is a promising step in this direction. This initiative has narrowed the focus to the individual blocks that are experiencing an outsize share of the crime.

But it isn’t just about adding bodies. By narrowing the focus and returning tactical control to precinct commanders and directing resources to specific hot spots, the department can achieve better outcomes even with fewer officers. This approach also allows precincts to adapt more flexibly to evolving crime conditions, rather than relying on static, top-down deployment zones dictated by headquarters.

Triage gun violence investigations

Rigorous oversight of every shooting incident must drive the NYPD’s approach to disrupting retaliatory gun violence. This means systematically tracking each feud and crew rivalry using detailed scorecards that monitor every feud, crew rivalry and potential flash point. Such meticulous monitoring helps predict where violence will occur and guides both police and community intervention efforts.

Relentless follow-up on every incident is critical. The department cannot let any potential retaliation slip through the cracks. By targeting resources at the most dangerous crews and volatile conflicts, the NYPD can prevent violence before it happens. The department’s successful gang takedowns demonstrate that this focused approach works.

Disciplined oversight and strategic follow-through on conflicts have proven effective in preventing shootings, as demonstrated by the department’s past successes with a precision policing strategy. By prioritizing the most volatile feuds through data-driven triage, departments can disrupt cycles of violence before they escalate. It’s time to implement this evidence-based model consistently, ensuring resources target the greatest particular threats to neighborhood safety.

Take on auto-related crimes

The low clearance rates for these crimes, 18% for vehicle theft and less than 5% for parts theft, represent both a crisis and an opportunity. These technically sophisticated crimes require specialized skills, from Honda lock reprogramming to catalytic converter extraction, limiting them to a small group of repeat offenders. This concentration means targeting key perpetrators with extra investigative effort could dramatically reduce incidents.

While Bronx detective squads occasionally identify patterns in these cases, they are rarely investigated in depth. The department’s Auto Crime Division, already short-staffed, investigates them as long-term organized crime cases, which can take months or even years to resolve. To stem the tide, the NYPD must assign a dedicated group of detectives focused solely on this issue.

The NYPD needs to prioritize swift arrests over the prolonged development of lengthy cases. While long-term investigations have their place, allowing hundreds of additional thefts during months of surveillance undermines public safety. These crimes require a more nimble response.

The solution lies in real-time intelligence-sharing between investigators and patrol officers, enabling swift identification and apprehension of these specialized thieves. This emphasis on immediate action — prioritizing quick arrests over extended surveillance — delivers faster results and sends a clear message about certainty of capture. Research consistently shows that increasing the certainty of sanctions is a far more effective deterrent than increasing their severity.

Address disorder

Visible disorder, such as open-air drug markets, public drinking and unsafe parks, erodes community morale and requires a coordinated response. Major commercial corridors like Fordham Road and The Hub have become focal points of concern, drawing consistent complaints from Business Improvement Districts and residents. Congressman Ritchie Torres recently observed, regarding The Hub, “The tacit acceptance of unfettered drug use on Melrose Avenue, as though it were an inevitable fact of life, sends a dangerous message: that the public safety and public health of the Bronx is not a priority but an afterthought.”

Restoring neighborhood quality of life demands a unified response from agencies like Sanitation, Parks and Homeless Services, working in concert with local nonprofits, block associations and BIDs. Programs like Community Link have demonstrated remarkable success in targeting these challenges through coordinated responses, and expanding this model would multiply its impact. However, policing must remain the cornerstone of any strategy to protect public spaces. This means precincts need proper staffing levels that give officers the discretionary time to address quality-of-life issues: time to engage with communities, understand local problems and implement lasting solutions. Without adequate resources, officers are reduced to racing from call to call, unable to provide the sustained attention these neighborhood issues require.

Conclusion 

 None of these solutions is revolutionary — they’re proven approaches that require resources, focus and sustained commitment. But implementing them demands political will and a recognition that the Bronx’s divergent crime trends demand urgent attention.

This is more than a public safety challenge; it’s a matter of basic equity. Decades ago, targeted government intervention transformed the South Bronx from a symbol of urban decay into a model of renewal. Investments in housing and infrastructure, combined with the determination of local leaders, reshaped the borough and demonstrated the power of deliberate action.

Now, the Bronx deserves nothing less than the same level of safety and security enjoyed by residents across the rest of New York City. History has shown us that change is possible when we refuse to accept neglect as the status quo.