Parsing the poll and election numbers
New York’s chattering political class is in stunned disbelief about the 11th-hour decision by Gov. Kathy Hochul to postpone congestion pricing indefinitely — a move that the New York Times Editorial Board called a “grievous misjudgment” and an MTA Board member said left them “shocked, bewildered” and “blindsided.”
Hochul’s efforts to postpone congestion pricing seem to be motivated by a desire to win key swing House districts on Long Island and north of the city, and a belief that pausing congestion pricing was the key to doing so. Democrats’ loss of these districts by razor-thin margins in 2022 was responsible for Republicans taking the House; according to reports, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries pressed Hochul to change course in hopes the party could win more New York districts — and maybe even win back the House — in 2024.
Indeed, despite the massive 3.3 million voter registration advantage that Democrats enjoy, New York was — and is again — a critical battleground state in the country for deciding control of the U.S. House of Representatives. In a nation with a vanishing number of swing districts, New York still has a half-dozen. And key areas, notably Long Island, have been trending red, as we wrote about after the municipal elections last November.
In the November 2022 midterm elections, four races for the U.S. House in New York were decided by less than 5,000 votes, and another race was decided by less than 10,000 votes. These are paper-thin victories, leaving Democrats very little margin for error in a tough political environment.
At first blush, Hochul’s congestion pricing reversal appeared to placate some of the public sector unions who had voiced objections on behalf of their members. Some Republicans also appeared relieved by the pause. Congestion-pricing-opposing outer-borough and suburban swing-district Democratic elected officials and candidates also expressed support.
Nobody can predict the future with confidence. However, contrary to Hochul’s high-stakes bet that “pausing” congestion pricing will assist Democrats in key races, our analysis is that it will likely further damage both Hochul and Democrats’ chances in November.
Before we get to why, it’s critical to put the current political moment in context by understanding four key data points about the broader climate.
First, Hochul’s 2022 electoral mandate is minimal — meaning she doesn’t have much political capital to begin with. While Democrat Joe Biden won New York State against Republican Donald Trump in 2020 by 23 points and Democrat Andrew Cuomo beat Republican Marc Molinaro in the 2018 gubernatorial contest also by 23 points, Kathy Hochul only fended off Trump-defending Republican Lee Zeldin by less than 7 points in the 2022 race for governor.
In the November 2022 midterm elections, four races for the U.S. House in New York were decided by less than 5,000 votes, and another race was decided by less than 10,000 votes.
Relatedly, Hochul’s current polling numbers are lower today than at any other time in her tenure, and she has yet to poll above 50% in any public poll ever. Moreover, Hochul continues to struggle with core Democratic constituencies. The latest Siena College poll has Kathy Hochul garnering a favorability rating of a mere 38% — something accomplished without a political scandal or controversy.
Third, even in a strong Democratic state like New York, no public polling has shown Joe Biden with above 50% of the vote in his race against Trump and private polling even has Trump, a now convicted felon, leading Biden in several of the key swing House races — suggesting Democrats have an uphill climb to win these races.
Biden’s statewide horse race lead against Trump statewide is less than 10 points, and Trump and Biden are tied evenly among independent voters in New York. Concerningly, Trump is performing 13 points better with Republicans than Biden is with Democrats — a worrying enthusiasm gap.
In the battleground of Long Island, according to the Siena and Newsday poll, Trump now leads Biden by three points, 43% to 40%.
On the surface, the arrival of unpopular congestion pricing as a Democratic-supported toll would only exacerbate these negative trends. A much-cited poll by Siena College in late April found that 64% of New Yorkers, including 72% in the suburbs, opposed the $15 congestion pricing toll to drive into part of Manhattan.
Hochul and Democrats on the ballot in key races in 2024 now risk being seen as craven politicians without the courage of convictions, candidates who don’t appear to know what they stand for — who bend to the latest opinion poll.
Ditching an unpopular policy doesn’t mean gaining voters
This is where we get to the limits of Hochul’s strategic thinking. The irony is that by trying hard to get the politics of congestion pricing right, by getting on the popular side of an unpopular issue to get some swing and Republican votes in the Democratic column, Hochul may well have ended up getting them exactly wrong.
In our experience polling and surveying voters, we have found that they don’t always make up their minds by rationally weighing issues one by one; instead, they think more holistically. Voters intuitively understand who is authentic with convictions to the core, versus those who are politically expedient.
Hochul and Democrats on the ballot in key races in 2024 now risk being seen as craven politicians without the courage of convictions, candidates who don’t appear to know what they stand for — who bend to the latest opinion poll.
Relatedly, Hochul has likely further dampened Democratic enthusiasm among the activist base that saw congestion pricing as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to raise funds for transit and reduce crippling traffic in Manhattan. A major theme in public opinion polling these days in New York, and indeed, across the country, is the enthusiasm gap — which has Democrats at a decided disadvantage. Democratic voters are less enthusiastic about supporting their nominee compared with Republican voters and many of their core constituencies — especially communities of color — are expressing far less full-throated intensity about voting in November.
Hochul may think she’s making things a little easier for swing Democrats — but that’s not the way things work in the real world. Now, they will likely just look confused. The commuter tax was killed in 1999 to allegedly help Democrats win a special election for state senate in the suburbs, which they went on to lose. Importantly, today’s issue environment is sufficiently bad for Democrats that there is already plenty of fodder for Republicans to go after Democrats on, without even mentioning congestion pricing. Which is to say, the congestion pricing reversal creates a picture of Democratic incompetence and confusion without addressing any core vulnerabilities.
While public polling will likely show that most voters did not want the policy to be enacted, the manner and timing of this decision will likely cause Hochul reputational damage that will be long-lasting.
We spoke with veteran political consultant Hank Sheinkopf, who has worked on more than 700 successful political races across the country and the world, and he told us as follows: “This will not help the Democrats at all. While the Albany Democrats have veto-proof majorities, the congressional seats picked up by the Republicans two years ago are now less likely to switch over. The issues of migrants, a perception of rising costs and crime, and a general sense of chaos and unrest mean that Democrats are likely to pay for the current realities whether congestion pricing was enacted, or not.”
Beyond the immediate ramifications for this November, there are other important political implications in state politics.
Hochul has badly harmed her reputation and political standing — perhaps irreparably — among key stakeholders she needs to work with regularly. She has violated trust, arguably the most important commodity for a public official.
While public polling will likely show that most voters did not want the policy to be enacted, the manner and timing of this decision will likely cause Hochul reputational damage that will be long-lasting.
We don’t know yet who the candidate or candidates will be, but it is now guaranteed that Kathy Hochul, who has badly wounded herself politically with this issue, will face a very serious and robust primary and general election challenge in 2026.
If Hochul really wanted to stop congestion pricing, she could and should have announced that several months ago — with a plan for how to make a “pause” happen — and not dropped it at the last minute with no real idea of what might happen next.
By doing what she did when and how she did it, Hochul created a five-alarm fire that will only serve to enhance the opposition to her and could further dampen Democratic enthusiasm and intensity, and, in doing so, potentially cost Democrats control of the U.S. House for a second time.
Disclosure Note: The Honan Strategy Group has done political consulting work for Mike Bloomberg and Andrew Cuomo.