What the data show
Four years after the pandemic spikes in crime, how is New York City doing? The city continues to remain one of the safest big cities in the nation, with serious crime relatively rare. But compared to what New Yorkers were used to in the years leading up to the pandemic (2017-19), major crime, by the numbers, is about 30% higher. Some particularly gruesome crimes, such as the murder of one woman at the end of the year on the subway after being lit on fire, have fueled a general sense of uneasiness that New Yorkers have expressed about their city, its safety and their well-being.
And they are not wrong to feel jittery.
The overall safety numbers mask a disturbing trend from the geographically concentrated crime that the city has perennially suffered from, aimed at getting money or things (e.g., robbery), toward violence that is driven by animus and expressed in the apparently random pushes off the subway platform or slashings on the street. These are the felonies that have soared unabated (and largely unremarked in the official reports) since 2019. Along with this counter indicator is another: the sharp rise in all crimes, large and small combined. While murders at 377 a year are relatively rare and relatively concentrated, numbering in the hundreds, misdemeanor assault, harassment and other “low-level” offenses number in the tens of thousands and are more widely dispersed. These also are at a decade high.
This report goes beneath the surface of overall crime numbers to try to explain what is happening in New York City, and why New Yorkers are on edge, as a first step to figuring out how to improve the city’s well-being.
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This report is broken into the following sections:
1. Overview of crime trends
2. Trends within the city
3. Trends to watch
4. How the justice system is working
1. Overview of crime trends
A. The state of violence in New York City in 2024
Overall, major crime in New York City has continued to decline in 2024 but remains significantly above the prepandemic lows of 2019. A notable exception is the rise in violent crime. While murders and shootings have decreased by 4% and 8%, respectively, since 2023, they are still 18.3% and 16.3% higher than in 2019. Most troubling is the continuing climb in felony assaults, increasing by 5% in 2024 compared to 2023 and now standing 40.4% above 2019 levels.
For a city with over 8 million people — twice the size of Los Angeles, or the combined population of the five smallest U.S. states — crime in New York City was relatively rare in 2024.
New Yorkers in 2024 had a 1.3 in 10 million daily chance of being a murder victim and a 10 in 1 million chance of falling victim to a felony assault. While the overall chance of being a victim of a crime is rare, that rate masks the concentration of crime in some places, varying significantly by borough and neighborhood. For instance, the likelihood of experiencing grand larceny (the theft of an item worth more than $1,000) in Manhattan is nearly three times higher than in Brooklyn, while the risk of being murdered in the Bronx is four times greater than in Queens.
Despite the overall rarity of these major crimes, New Yorkers face more risk of being victimized today than they did before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic began a multiyear spike in crime, particularly in murders and shootings, that has only just begun a gradual decline. There are some notable exceptions to the decline: Felony assaults have continued a steep upward trajectory that began in 2019 and has continued unabated.
While the overall trends show a lagging recovery, since November there has been a remarkable dive in the overall crime numbers. The annualized major crime trend — an estimate of how crime levels would appear if the trends were extended to cover an entire year — dropped to below 110,000 crimes for the first time in two years. To give a sense of how much impact this has on the overall crime numbers: If the annual reductions in crime had been measured in November, before this decrease, it would have shown that major crime had declined only 1.2%. The steep reductions since November have resulted in a yearly crime drop over last year of 2.9%.
B. Context: How this compares to other places
Despite the increases in crime since the pandemic, New York City is still one of the safest cities in the nation, ranking first in total major crime, due to low rates of major property crime. Of the top 10 cities by population, only San Diego has a lower murder rate.
However, New York City is lagging behind the top 10 cities in some crucial areas. Between 2023 and 2024 (January through October, the latest month for which comparable data exist), New York City had the largest increase in violent crime and assaults among the top 10 most populous cities, and the smallest decrease in murders.
There is still significant room for progress when New York City is measured against its past and its peers. How much safer New Yorkers and Americans overall might be becomes even starker looking across the globe: While New York City’s murder rate is lower than the national average, it remains more than twice as high as Canada’s, the country with the second-highest murder rate among G10 nations.
2. Trends within the city
A. Crime is concentrated
Crime concentrates in specific locations, often following predictable patterns. In New York City, as with many cities, crime concentration is remarkable.
Among the top 10 neighborhoods with the highest levels of violent crime, six are located in the Bronx. However, crime rates vary significantly even within this group. University Heights, with the highest murder rate, has nearly six times as many murders as Morrisania, which has the lowest rate among the top 10. In 2024, East Harlem led the city in violent and assault crime rates, while Midtown had the highest property crime rate, making it the leader in total major crime due to its high property crime volume. While the chart below shows the top 10 precincts in terms of violent crime, it can also be sorted by murder rate, assault rate, property crime and total major crime. Using the search function, one can find a given precinct or neighborhood to see how it compared to the rest of the city in 2024 (January through October).
Shootings are also disproportionately concentrated in certain neighborhoods and precincts. Over the past 30 years, the top 10 neighborhoods in shootings in 2023 — East New York, Brownsville, Highbridge, Fordham, East Harlem, Bedford-Stuyvesant, Central Harlem, Williamsbridge and East Flatbush — have consistently registered among the highest shooting rates.
B. What is happening in the Bronx? Among the top 10 precincts for violent crime, six are located in the Bronx, two are in Manhattan and one each are in Queens and Brooklyn. When we broaden the focus from precincts to boroughs, the Bronx is a clear outlier. Grand larceny continues to rise, while felony assaults have surged higher than in other boroughs and are showing slower declines. Previously, the Bronx had robbery, burglary and grand larceny auto rates comparable to Brooklyn. However, it now significantly outpaces Brooklyn in all these categories.
In 2024, the Bronx experienced a significant increase in its murder rate, rising from 57 murders per million people to 81 murders per million people, with the pace of decline now slowing. In contrast, Queens has seen remarkable progress in reducing murders, dropping from 27 murders per million people in 2019 to 21 in 2024. Staten Island has also registered a decrease, reporting fewer murders in 2024 than in 2019. Meanwhile, Brooklyn has nearly returned to its prepandemic murder rate, reflecting a recovery to earlier levels.
The Bronx lags behind the rest of the city both in its overall recovery from the pandemic and in its year-to-year progress compared to last year. For a deeper analysis of the challenges facing the Bronx, see John Hall’s detailed article, “The Bronx’s Crime Crisis: A Borough Left Behind.”
3. Trends to watch: A high volume of assaults and overall crime; crime in the subways, the age of the perpetrators; end-of-year improvements
A. Assaults and overall crime
Starting in 2020, both felony assaults (that is, assaults that result in serious injuries like broken bones or disfigurement, involve the use of a weapon or target protected workers such as police officers or paramedics on duty) and all crime (including those not accounted for in the seven major crimes) began to climb sharply. Any rise in crime is a matter of concern. But the rise of these two measures, as others have begun to drop, is of particular concern: felony assaults because it is a measure of violence fueled by animus, often experienced as “random” crimes, and “all crimes” because of the sheer volume of events it measures on the street. While the total number of major crimes last year was nearly 124,000, the total number of all crimes was nearly 590,000. Those include misdemeanor assault and harassment, the kinds of events that interfere with a walk down the street or a ride on the subway.
Both felony assaults and misdemeanor assaults have not been this high since 1998, a time when murders, for example, were over five times the number they are today. Overall, assaults have increased by 43.8% since the pandemic.
The steady rise in felony assaults since 2008 stands in sharp contrast to the declining rate of robberies, particularly when compared to the levels seen in the early and mid-1990s. While robberies once vastly outnumbered felony assaults, the trend has reversed: Felony assaults now outnumber robberies by nearly 2 to 1. In 2024, there were approximately 17,000 robberies compared to 29,000 felony assaults.
These assaults are increasingly being committed by strangers rather than someone known to the victim. This shift suggests a greater likelihood of random attacks.
B. Subways
In 2024, several high-profile incidents on New York City subways raised serious safety concerns. In Brooklyn, in the fall, a police confrontation with a fare evader escalated into a shooting. In the winter, a woman sleeping on an F train at the Coney Island station was fatally set on fire, and in Manhattan on New Years Eve, a man was pushed onto the tracks at the 18th Street station. How safe are New Yorkers on the city’s subways?
Despite these occurrences, the subway is still a relatively safe place when measured by the rate of crimes by rides. An analysis published in Vital City concludes that the subways may be safer than the streets of New York City.
While the subways are in many ways safe by the numbers, the nature of crime underground — in confined spaces, in a mobile environment, with videos quickly circulating — means New Yorkers do not feel safe. The public perception that the subways have become less safe is also reflected in the numbers: Since 2009, felony assaults have more than tripled, and murders in 2022 and 2024 tied for the highest number of murders on the subway system since at least 2006.
Reflecting broader trends on the surface, both felony assaults and misdemeanor assaults have surged since 2009, while robberies have notably declined. This shift suggests a change in the nature of crimes, moving from more instrumental offenses (e.g., to acquire money or property) to more impulsive acts.
C. Age
Another notable trend is the rising average age of arrestees. In 2024, much attention was given to the impact of the Raise the Age Law on crime. However, the data reveal a broader pattern: Over time, the average age of individuals arrested for both major violent and major property crimes has steadily increased.
Among the seven major crime categories, only auto theft did not follow a trend of increasing age.
Changes in criminal behavior (murder, rape, robbery and assault) are not uniform across age groups. Compared to 2018, individuals aged 15 to 29 committed fewer violent crimes, while those aged 30 to 46 committed more. Similarly, violent crime decreased among individuals aged 47 to 59, but it increased among those aged 60 and older.
4. How is the justice system working?
An often overlooked aspect of crime prevention is the effectiveness of the justice system. Are individuals being brought to trial or otherwise held accountable for their actions? Since the pandemic, New York City’s justice system appears to have weakened, particularly when compared to other parts of New York State.
In 2023, the handling of felony cases in New York City differed significantly from the rest of the state. Within the city, the district attorneys declined 11% of felony cases compared to nearly 0% outside the city. Additionally, 52% of cases in the city were dismissed, whereas only 19% faced dismissal in the rest of the state. Just 32% of felony cases in the city led to a conviction, less than half the 67% conviction rate outside the city. Even more striking, only 8% of cases in the city resulted in felony convictions, compared to 35% outside the city, nearly three times lower. Overall, these metrics have worsened since 2019.
Crime clearance refers to the percentage of reported crimes that are “cleared” by the police, meaning a suspect is identified, arrested and charged, or, in some cases, the case is otherwise closed (e.g., the suspect dies or is otherwise unavailable for prosecution). In New York City, about 40% of major crimes are cleared, although this can range by crime type. For example, nearly 80% of felony assaults are cleared, while less than 18% of auto thefts are cleared.
In 2023, for every 1,000 reported felonies, approximately 380 arrests were made. Of those, prosecutors declined to press charges in 42 cases and 200 were dismissed. Ultimately, only 123 out of the original 1,000 felony complaints led to a conviction of any kind, with just 32 resulting in felony convictions. Fewer than 40 individuals faced additional prison or jail time.
This is significantly worse than before the pandemic. In 2019, out of 1,000 reported felonies, approximately 350 people were arrested. Of those 350, District Attorneys declined 30 cases, 130 were dismissed and 184 were convicted — 42 as felonies — with 52 ending up with additional prison or jail time.
Other parts of New York State perform significantly better. In 2023, the statewide clearance rate outside New York City was approximately 25% overall, with 37% for violent crimes and 23% for property crimes. That means that, out of 1,000 felonies reported, about 250 resulted in arrests and charges. Of the 250 crimes charged, less than one case was declined by prosecutors and only 59 cases were dismissed. Ultimately, 166 cases resulted in convictions, including 61 felony convictions, with 67 individuals receiving additional prison or jail time.
In summary, New York City’s District Attorneys are declining significantly more cases, a much higher number of cases are being dismissed compared to the rest of the state, and the City’s conviction rate is 39% lower than it was in 2019 and 52% lower than other parts of the state.
Note: Clearance rates referenced in this report are for any crime solved in that category in the relevant crime period, even if the crime was committed in a different crime period. An earlier version of the report used clearance rates that only included crimes solved and cleared in the same quarter. These numbers have been updated, and that change also resulted in adjustments to related statistics, such as the share of cases that yield declinations, convictions and dismissals.